Tropical Storm Erin tracker: Forecast to strengthen into 1st Atlantic hurricane of 2025 by this weekend

National Hurricane Center


Tropical Storm Erin could become the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, and a major one at that, according to forecasters at the National Hurricane Center.

Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Monday and is projected to move west. During the course of this week, it’s expected to strengthen. The NHC said it's still "too early" to determine what sort of impacts Erin could have, if any, to the U.S. East Coast, Bermuda or the northern Leeward Islands, but added that now is a good time to make sure preparedness plans are in place.
Where is Tropical Storm Erin, and what is its path?

As of 5 p.m. ET Monday:


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Erin was located 430 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.


The storm has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph.


The storm was moving west at 21 mph and is expected to "continue for the next several days with a gradual slowdown in forward speed," the NHC said in a Monday evening update.
What are the chances it will intensify?

The NHC’s intensity forecast shows Tropical Storm Erin could become a hurricane by the end of the week on Aug. 14, with winds reaching 80 mph, according to the agency's Monday evening forecast discussion. By Saturday, Aug. 16, Erin could become a “major hurricane,” with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.

A tropical storm becomes a hurricane when maximum sustained winds reach at least 74 mph. Hurricanes are rated on a scale ranging from Category 1 to Category 5, with 5 being the most severe. A storm is considered a major hurricane when it reaches Category 3 strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

According to the Tropical Storm Erin forecast, maximum sustained winds of 115 mph mean it would be considered a Category 3 major hurricane, according to the NHC.
Watches and warnings in place

As of 5 p.m. ET Monday, there are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
How is hurricane season shaping up?

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November, has a 50% chance of being above normal.


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Last week, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly updated the number of expected named storms to between 13 and 18 (previously 13 to 19 in May), two to five of which could become major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph).

A typical hurricane season averages 14 named storms. We’re currently about halfway through this year’s hurricane season, and there have been five so far: Tropical Storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter and Erin.